The Battleground

17 districts.
10 states.
Across the ballot.

Coalition programs are live in every district on this map. In these districts, Latino citizens of voting age frequently outnumber the previous margin of victory many times over.

In Colorado's 8th, the 2024 race was decided by a few thousand votes in a district where roughly 31 percent of the citizen voting-age population is Latino. Modest improvements in registration, turnout and persuasion can change individual races, and potentially control of the House. The constraint is not demographics. It is investment and engagement.

Ten program states · Seventeen districts

Click a highlighted state to compare the candidates in its Tier 1 race.

Arizona

AZ-06 · AZ-01

California

CA-22 · CA-48

Colorado

CO-08

Florida

FL-09 · FL-27

Nebraska

NE-02

New Jersey

NJ-07

New Mexico

NM-02

New York

NY-17

Pennsylvania

PA-07 · PA-08 · PA-10

Texas

TX-15 · TX-34 · TX-35

Tier 1 · Flip targets

Certified 2024 House results. Latino share of citizen voting-age population from UnidosUS analysis of U.S. Census data.

DistrictIncumbent2024 marginLatino CVAP CO-08Evans (R)2,449 (0.7 pts)31% PA-07Mackenzie (R)4,062 (1.0 pt)16% NE-02Bacon (R), retiring5,829 (1.8 pts)7% AZ-06Ciscomani (R)10,800 (2.5 pts)22% CA-22Valadao (R)11,339 (6.8 pts)65% TX-15De La Cruz (R)31,800 (14.2 pts)74%

Who's on your ballot

Candidate lookup

Pick a district or click a highlighted state on the map. Major-party nominees only; information current as of September 19, 2026.

Tier 1 · Flip targets

CO-08 PA-07 AZ-06 CA-22 TX-15 NE-02

Protect

FL-09 NM-02 TX-34

Additional investment

AZ-01 CA-48 FL-27 NJ-07 NY-17 PA-08 PA-10 TX-35

PA-08

StatePennsylvania

Northeastern Pennsylvania, including Scranton and Wilkes-Barre.

Republican

Rob Bresnahan Jr.

Incumbent · first elected 2024

Background

A fifth-generation Northeastern Pennsylvanian who took over his grandfather’s union electrical contracting company at 19 and expanded it across the state before defeating six-term Rep. Matt Cartwright in 2024 by less than 2 points. He serves on the Transportation and Infrastructure, Small Business and Agriculture committees and has made jobs and workforce training his focus.

Endorsements

President Donald Trump
PA Conference of Teamsters
Pennsylvania State Troopers Association
IBEW Locals 163 and 1319
Pennsylvania Laborers’ District Council
Amalgamated Transit Union
IUOE Local 542
Boilermakers Local 13
Brotherhood of Railroad Signalmen
American Federation of Government Employees
National Federation of Independent Business
U.S. Chamber of Commerce
National Electrical Contractors Association
NRCC Patriot program

Democrat

Paige Cognetti

Challenger · mayor of Scranton

Background

Mayor of Scranton since 2020. She first won the office as an independent in a 2019 special election on an anti-corruption platform, and earlier worked at the U.S. Treasury Department and for the Pennsylvania auditor general. She campaigns on government ethics, including a ban on congressional stock trading, and on costs for working families.

Endorsements

Gov. Josh Shapiro
Pennsylvania AFL-CIO
Pennsylvania State Education Association
SEIU Pennsylvania State Council
Communications Workers of America
DCCC Red to Blue program

Sources: Candidate research current as of September 19, 2026; robforpa.com; paigeforpa.com.

Tier 1 · Flip

AZ-06 · CA-22 · CO-08 · NE-02 · PA-07 · TX-15

Protect

FL-09 · NM-02 · TX-34

Additional investment

AZ-01 · CA-48 · FL-27 · NJ-07 · NY-17 · PA-08 · PA-10 · TX-35

U.S. Senate and state legislative races are incorporated where they overlap.

17 districts.10 states.Across the ballot.

Tier 1 · Flip targets

Candidate lookup

Rob Bresnahan Jr.

Paige Cognetti

17 districts.
10 states.
Across the ballot.