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The Battleground

17 districts.
10 states.
Across the ballot.

Coalition programs are live in every district on this map. In these districts, Latino citizens of voting age frequently outnumber the previous margin of victory many times over.

In Colorado's 8th, the 2024 race was decided by a few thousand votes in a district where roughly 31 percent of the citizen voting-age population is Latino. Modest improvements in registration, turnout and persuasion can change individual races, and potentially control of the House. The constraint is not demographics. It is investment and engagement.

Ten program states · Seventeen districts

Click a highlighted state to compare the candidates in its Tier 1 race.

Flag of Arizona

Arizona

AZ-06 · AZ-01

Flag of California

California

CA-22 · CA-48

Flag of Colorado

Colorado

CO-08

Flag of Florida

Florida

FL-09 · FL-27

Flag of Nebraska

Nebraska

NE-02

Flag of New Jersey

New Jersey

NJ-07

Flag of New Mexico

New Mexico

NM-02

Flag of New York

New York

NY-17

Flag of Pennsylvania

Pennsylvania

PA-07 · PA-08 · PA-10

Flag of Texas

Texas

TX-15 · TX-34 · TX-35

Tier 1 · Flip targets

Certified 2024 House results. Latino share of citizen voting-age population from UnidosUS analysis of U.S. Census data.

DistrictIncumbent2024 marginLatino CVAP CO-08Evans (R)2,449 (0.7 pts)31% PA-07Mackenzie (R)4,062 (1.0 pt)16% NE-02Bacon (R), retiring5,829 (1.8 pts)7% AZ-06Ciscomani (R)10,800 (2.5 pts)22% CA-22Valadao (R)11,339 (6.8 pts)65% TX-15De La Cruz (R)31,800 (14.2 pts)74%

Who's on your ballot

Candidate lookup

Pick a district or click a highlighted state on the map. Major-party nominees only; information current as of September 19, 2026.

Tier 1 · Flip targets

CO-08PA-07AZ-06CA-22TX-15NE-02

Protect

FL-09NM-02TX-34

Additional investment

AZ-01CA-48FL-27NJ-07NY-17PA-08PA-10TX-35

PA-07

StatePennsylvania2024 marginR +1.0 — 4,062 votesLatino CVAP16% Latino

The smallest margin of victory of any U.S. House race in 2024.

Republican

Ryan Mackenzie

Incumbent · first elected 2024

Background

Grew up in Allentown. B.S. in finance and international business from NYU, MBA from Harvard. Twelve years in the Pennsylvania House before defeating Rep. Susan Wild 50.4%–49.4%.

Endorsements

  • Not confirmed in this research pass. Request the current list from the campaign.
VS

Democrat

Bob Brooks

Challenger · firefighter union president

Background

Retired Bethlehem firefighter and president of the Pennsylvania Professional Fire Fighters Association. Won a four-way May 19 primary.

Endorsements

  • Bernie Sanders
  • Gov. Josh Shapiro
  • Pete Buttigieg

Sources: Ballotpedia; Spotlight PA; Cook Political Report; GBAO Strategies poll, late June 2026 (n=550 likely voters): Brooks 47%, Mackenzie 43% — the only public poll of this race.

Tier 1 · Flip

AZ-06 · CA-22 · CO-08 · NE-02 · PA-07 · TX-15

Protect

FL-09 · NM-02 · TX-34

Additional investment

AZ-01 · CA-48 · FL-27 · NJ-07 · NY-17 · PA-08 · PA-10 · TX-35

U.S. Senate and state legislative races are incorporated where they overlap.