The Battleground

17 districts.
10 states.
Across the ballot.

Coalition programs are live in every district on this map. In these districts, Latino citizens of voting age frequently outnumber the previous margin of victory many times over.

In Colorado's 8th, the 2024 race was decided by a few thousand votes in a district where roughly 31 percent of the citizen voting-age population is Latino. Modest improvements in registration, turnout and persuasion can change individual races, and potentially control of the House. The constraint is not demographics. It is investment and engagement.

Ten program states · Seventeen districts

Click a highlighted state to compare the candidates in its Tier 1 race.

Arizona

AZ-06 · AZ-01

California

CA-22 · CA-48

Colorado

CO-08

Florida

FL-09 · FL-27

Nebraska

NE-02

New Jersey

NJ-07

New Mexico

NM-02

New York

NY-17

Pennsylvania

PA-07 · PA-08 · PA-10

Texas

TX-15 · TX-34 · TX-35

Tier 1 · Flip targets

Certified 2024 House results. Latino share of citizen voting-age population from UnidosUS analysis of U.S. Census data.

DistrictIncumbent2024 marginLatino CVAP CO-08Evans (R)2,449 (0.7 pts)31% PA-07Mackenzie (R)4,062 (1.0 pt)16% NE-02Bacon (R), retiring5,829 (1.8 pts)7% AZ-06Ciscomani (R)10,800 (2.5 pts)22% CA-22Valadao (R)11,339 (6.8 pts)65% TX-15De La Cruz (R)31,800 (14.2 pts)74%

Who's on your ballot

Candidate lookup

Pick a district or click a highlighted state on the map. Major-party nominees only; information current as of September 19, 2026.

Tier 1 · Flip targets

CO-08 PA-07 AZ-06 CA-22 TX-15 NE-02

Protect

FL-09 NM-02 TX-34

Additional investment

AZ-01 CA-48 FL-27 NJ-07 NY-17 PA-08 PA-10 TX-35

NY-17

StateNew York

The lower Hudson Valley, including Rockland and Putnam counties and parts of Westchester and Dutchess.

Republican

Mike Lawler

Incumbent · first elected 2022, no primary challenger

Background

A Rockland County native who served in the New York State Assembly and earlier as executive director of the state Republican Party. He won the seat in 2022 by defeating Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney and was re-elected in 2024 with about 52%. He serves on the Financial Services and Foreign Affairs committees and stresses a bipartisan record.

Endorsements

President Donald Trump
New Castle Councilwoman Ally Chemtob (D)

Democrat

Cait Conley

Challenger · won the five-way June 23 Democratic primary with about 48%

Background

A fourth-generation Hudson Valley native and West Point graduate who served 16 years as an Army officer with six overseas deployments and three Bronze Stars. She later directed counterterrorism work on the National Security Council and advised on election security at CISA. She holds graduate degrees from MIT and Harvard.

Endorsements

Reps. Pat Ryan and Jason Crow
VoteVets
EMILYs List
Working Families Party
Communications Workers of America
LGBTQ+ Victory Fund
DCCC Red to Blue program

Sources: Candidate research current as of September 19, 2026; lawlerforcongress.com; caitconley.com.

Tier 1 · Flip

AZ-06 · CA-22 · CO-08 · NE-02 · PA-07 · TX-15

Protect

FL-09 · NM-02 · TX-34

Additional investment

AZ-01 · CA-48 · FL-27 · NJ-07 · NY-17 · PA-08 · PA-10 · TX-35

U.S. Senate and state legislative races are incorporated where they overlap.

17 districts.10 states.Across the ballot.

Tier 1 · Flip targets

Candidate lookup

Mike Lawler

Cait Conley

17 districts.
10 states.
Across the ballot.