The Battleground

17 districts.
10 states.
Across the ballot.

Coalition programs are live in every district on this map. In these districts, Latino citizens of voting age frequently outnumber the previous margin of victory many times over.

In Colorado's 8th, the 2024 race was decided by a few thousand votes in a district where roughly 31 percent of the citizen voting-age population is Latino. Modest improvements in registration, turnout and persuasion can change individual races, and potentially control of the House. The constraint is not demographics. It is investment and engagement.

Ten program states · Seventeen districts

Click a highlighted state to compare the candidates in its Tier 1 race.

Arizona

AZ-06 · AZ-01

California

CA-22 · CA-48

Colorado

CO-08

Florida

FL-09 · FL-27

Nebraska

NE-02

New Jersey

NJ-07

New Mexico

NM-02

New York

NY-17

Pennsylvania

PA-07 · PA-08 · PA-10

Texas

TX-15 · TX-34 · TX-35

Tier 1 · Flip targets

Certified 2024 House results. Latino share of citizen voting-age population from UnidosUS analysis of U.S. Census data.

DistrictIncumbent2024 marginLatino CVAP CO-08Evans (R)2,449 (0.7 pts)31% PA-07Mackenzie (R)4,062 (1.0 pt)16% NE-02Bacon (R), retiring5,829 (1.8 pts)7% AZ-06Ciscomani (R)10,800 (2.5 pts)22% CA-22Valadao (R)11,339 (6.8 pts)65% TX-15De La Cruz (R)31,800 (14.2 pts)74%

Who's on your ballot

Candidate lookup

Pick a district or click a highlighted state on the map. Major-party nominees only; information current as of September 19, 2026.

Tier 1 · Flip targets

CO-08 PA-07 AZ-06 CA-22 TX-15 NE-02

Protect

FL-09 NM-02 TX-34

Additional investment

AZ-01 CA-48 FL-27 NJ-07 NY-17 PA-08 PA-10 TX-35

NE-02

StateNebraska2024 marginR +1.8 — 5,829 votesLatino CVAP7% Latino

Don Bacon is retiring, leaving the seat open. Kamala Harris carried NE-02 by about five points in 2024 while Bacon held it by two.

Republican

Brinker Harding

Open seat · ran unopposed in the May 12 Republican primary

Background

A fourth-generation Omahan, business leader and Omaha City Councilman. Campaigns on affordability and accountability under the slogan “Hold D.C. Accountable. Make Life Affordable.”

Endorsements

Sens. Deb Fischer and Pete Ricketts
Reps. Don Bacon, Mike Flood and Adrian Smith
Gov. Jim Pillen
Fmr. Gov. Dave Heineman
Attorney General Mike Hilgers
Fmr. Omaha Mayor Jean Stothert
Plus state senators, county officials and school board members across the district

Democrat

Denise Powell

Open seat · small business owner and organizer

Background

A mother, small business owner, former corporate executive, public school champion and healthcare advocate. After the 2016 election she founded an organization that has supported hundreds of Nebraskans running for local office and worked to protect the state’s public schools.

Endorsements

Sen. Mark Kelly
Reps. Emily Randall, Norma Torres and Andrea Salinas
Fmr. Rep. Annie Kuster
Fmr. State Sen. Tony Vargas
Lincoln Mayor Leirion Gaylor Baird
Preston Love, Jr.
DCCC “Red to Blue” program

Sources: Ballotpedia; Nebraska Examiner; Sabato’s Crystal Ball; deniseforcongress.org; brinkerharding.com.

Tier 1 · Flip

AZ-06 · CA-22 · CO-08 · NE-02 · PA-07 · TX-15

Protect

FL-09 · NM-02 · TX-34

Additional investment

AZ-01 · CA-48 · FL-27 · NJ-07 · NY-17 · PA-08 · PA-10 · TX-35

U.S. Senate and state legislative races are incorporated where they overlap.

17 districts.10 states.Across the ballot.

Tier 1 · Flip targets

Candidate lookup

Brinker Harding

Denise Powell

17 districts.
10 states.
Across the ballot.