The Case
34 points lost
in eight years
2024 was an electoral failure with Latino voters. Forty-one days from the 2026 midterms, the country is at risk of repeating it.
The lesson from 2024 should have been unmistakable: Latino voters are swing voters. They cannot be taken for granted, engaged only in the final weeks of an election, or treated as an audience for translated versions of a broader political message.
Democratic margin among Latino voters, in points
+38
2016 Democratic margin
+23
2020 Democratic margin
+4
2024 Democratic margin
−34
Net collapse in eight years
Democratic margin among Latino voters. Source: Pew Research Center validated voter studies, 2016, 2020, 2024.
It was not only persuasion. It was participation.
77%
Of Latino voters who supported Biden in 2020 returned to vote in 2024
86%
Of Latino Trump voters returned
A nine-point loyalty gap
11.5%
Hispanic turnout across the 19 states that held 2026 primaries
White turnout: 25.4%. Latinos trailed white turnout in every single state.
The damage was deepest in our strongholds
Rio Grande Valley, TX
+20 pts R
In one cycle. Historically 90%+ Latino, a Democratic stronghold for 50 years.
Passaic, NJ
Clinton +52 → Trump +5
A 57-point swing in a decade in a 75% Latino city.
Miami-Dade County, FL
Now competitive
Across the ballot. Previously a reliable D+20 corridor.
Allentown, PA (PA-07)
Decided by 1%
Trump's own campaign cited working-class Latinos in Allentown as decisive.
Sources: Pew Research Center; AP VoteCast 2024.
The Opportunity
The electorate itself is the opportunity
36.2M
Latino citizens eligible to vote
Up from 32.3M in 2020
53%
Registration rate, against 72% nationally
A 19-point gap: 17 million unregistered
1.4M
New eligible voters every year
About 2.8M new by November 2026
50%
Of all growth in the eligible U.S. electorate, 2020 to 2024, was Latino
The unregistered Latino electorate is larger than the combined margin in every competitive House race in the country.
The coalition Trump built is fracturing, fast
67%
Of Latino voters disapprove of Trump's job performance
−27
Point drop in his approval among his own 2024 Latino voters, 93% to 66%
25%
Of Latino Trump 2024 voters say they would not vote for him again
19%
Of Latino voters are still undecided on the 2026 House ballot
+27
Latino generic House ballot advantage, 54% D to 27% R
Sources: UnidosUS bipartisan poll, BSP Research and Shaw & Co., May 2026, n=3,000 registered Latino voters; Pew, April 2026.
This was not a demographic inevitability
It was the result of years of underinvestment, inconsistent engagement, and a political model that assumed Latino voters would come home when the stakes became clear. The central lesson of 2024 was simple: start earlier. In 2026, that lesson has still not been fully absorbed.
These voters did not suddenly become unreachable in 2024, nor have they suddenly returned in 2026. They are behaving like what they increasingly are: persuadable voters whose support has to be earned. That creates an enormous opportunity, but only if someone is there to meet it.